PredicitingFutureSurvey
From MWCSWiki
Predicting the Future
The Pew Internet and American Life Project interviewed several hundred “internet leaders, activists, and analysts” about the future of the Internet. See http://www.pewinternet.org/PPF/r/188/report_display.asp
This is a compilation of answers given by people attending the MWCS department get-together on Wednesday, Nov 7, 2007.
Good luck with your future!
Prediction: By 2020, worldwide network interoperability will be perfected, allowing smooth data flow, authentication and billing; mobile wireless communications will be available to anyone anywhere on the globe at an extremely low cost.
<table width="90%" border="0" cellpadding="3">
<tr align="center" bgcolor="#FFFF66">
<th scope="col"> </th>
<th scope="col">Agree</th>
<th scope="col">Disagree</th>
<th scope="col">Whatever</th>
</tr>
<tr align="center" bgcolor="#FFFF99">
<td>MW CS Survey </td>
<td>37% (11)</td>
<td>60% (18)</td>
<td>3% (1)</td>
</tr>
<tr align="center" bordercolor="#FFFFFF" bgcolor="#FFFFCC">
<td>Pew Survey</td>
<td>56%</td>
<td>43%</td>
<td>1%</td>
</tr>
<tr align="center" bordercolor="#FFFFFF" bgcolor="#FFFFDD"> <td>Delta: CS - Pew</td>
<td>-19</td>
<td>+17 </td>
<td>+2</td>
</tr>
</table>
Prediction: In 2020, networked communications have leveled the world into one big political, social, and economic space in which people everywhere can meet and have verbal and visual exchanges regularly, face-to-face, over the internet. English will be so indispensable in communicating that it displaces some languages.
<table width="90%" border="0" cellpadding="3">
<tr align="center" bgcolor="#FFFF66">
<th scope="col"> </th>
<th scope="col">Agree</th>
<th scope="col">Disagree</th>
<th scope="col">Whatever</th>
</tr>
<tr align="center" bgcolor="#FFFF99">
<td>MW CS Survey </td>
<td>37% (11)</td>
<td>60% (18)</td>
<td>3% (1)</td>
</tr>
<tr align="center" bordercolor="#FFFFFF" bgcolor="#FFFFCC">
<td>Pew Survey</td>
<td>42% </td>
<td>57% </td>
<td>1%</td>
</tr><tr align="center" bordercolor="#FFFFFF" bgcolor="#FFFFDD">
<td>Delta: CS - Pew</td>
<td>-5</td>
<td>+3</td>
<td>+2</td>
</tr>
</table>
Prediction: By 2020, intelligent agents and distributed control will cut direct human input so completely out of some key activities such as surveillance, security and tracking systems that technology beyond our control will generate dangers and
dependencies that will not be recognized until it is impossible to reverse them. We will be on a 'J-curve' of continued acceleration of change.
<table width="90%" border="0" cellpadding="3">
<tr align="center" bgcolor="#FFFF66">
<th scope="col"> </th>
<th scope="col">Agree</th>
<th scope="col">Disagree</th>
<th scope="col">Whatever</th>
</tr>
<tr align="center" bgcolor="#FFFF99">
<td>MW CS Survey </td>
<td>13% (4)</td>
<td>74% (22)</td>
<td>13% (4)</td>
</tr>
<tr align="center" bordercolor="#FFFFFF" bgcolor="#FFFFCC">
<td>Pew Survey</td>
<td>42% </td>
<td>54% </td>
<td>4%</td>
</tr>
<tr align="center" bordercolor="#FFFFFF" bgcolor="#FFFFDD"> <td>Delta: CS - Pew</td>
<td>-29</td>
<td>+20 </td>
<td>+9</td>
</tr>
</table>
Prediction: As sensing, storage and communication technologies get cheaper and better, individuals' public and private lives will become increasingly 'transparent' globally. Everything will be more visible to everyone, with good and bad results. Looking at the big picture – at all of the lives affected on the planet in every way possible – this will make the world a better place by the year 2020. The benefits will outweigh the costs.
<table width="90%" border="0" cellpadding="3">
<tr align="center" bgcolor="#FFFF66">
<th scope="col"> </th>
<th scope="col">Agree</th>
<th scope="col">Disagree</th>
<th scope="col">Whatever</th>
</tr>
<tr align="center" bgcolor="#FFFF99">
<td>MW CS Survey </td>
<td>43% (13)</td>
<td>37% (11)</td>
<td>20% (6)</td>
</tr>
<tr align="center" bordercolor="#FFFFFF" bgcolor="#FFFFCC">
<td>Pew Survey</td>
<td>46% </td>
<td>49% </td>
<td>5%</td>
</tr>
<tr align="center" bordercolor="#FFFFFF" bgcolor="#FFFFDD"> <td>Delta: CS - Pew</td>
<td>-3</td>
<td>-12 </td>
<td>+15</td>
</tr>
</table>
Prediction: By the year 2020, virtual reality on the internet will come to allow more productivity from most people in technologically-communities than working in the 'real world.' But the attractive nature of virtual-reality worlds will also lead to serious addiction problems for many, as we lose people to alternate realities.
<table width="90%" border="0" cellpadding="3">
<tr align="center" bgcolor="#FFFF66">
<th scope="col"> </th>
<th scope="col">Agree</th>
<th scope="col">Disagree</th>
<th scope="col">Whatever</th>
</tr>
<tr align="center" bgcolor="#FFFF99">
<td>MW CS Survey </td>
<td>70% (21)</td>
<td>20% (6)</td>
<td>10% (2)</td>
</tr>
<tr align="center" bordercolor="#FFFFFF" bgcolor="#FFFFCC">
<td>Pew Survey</td>
<td>56% </td>
<td>39% </td>
<td>5%</td>
</tr>
<tr align="center" bordercolor="#FFFFFF" bgcolor="#FFFFDD"> <td>Delta: CS - Pew</td>
<td>+14</td>
<td>-36 </td>
<td>+5</td>
</tr>
</table>
Prediction: In the best-seller The World is Flat, Thomas Friedman writes that the latest world revolution is found in the fact that the power of the internet makes it possible for individuals to collaborate and compete globally. This scenario: By 2020, the free flow of information will completely blur current national boundaries as they are replaced by citystates, corporation-based cultural groupings, and/or other geographically diverse and reconfigured human organizations tied together by global
networks.
<table width="90%" border="0" cellpadding="3">
<tr align="center" bgcolor="#FFFF66">
<th scope="col"> </th>
<th scope="col">Agree</th>
<th scope="col">Disagree</th>
<th scope="col">Whatever</th>
</tr>
<tr align="center" bgcolor="#FFFF99">
<td>MW CS Survey </td>
<td>27% (8)</td>
<td>56% (17)</td>
<td>17% (5)</td>
</tr>
<tr align="center" bordercolor="#FFFFFF" bgcolor="#FFFFCC">
<td>Pew Survey</td>
<td>52% </td>
<td>44% </td>
<td>5%</td>
</tr>
<tr align="center" bordercolor="#FFFFFF" bgcolor="#FFFFDD">
<td>Delta: CS - Pew</td>
<td>-27</td>
<td>+12 </td>
<td>+12</td>
</tr>
</table>
Prediction: By 2020, the people left behind (many by their own choice) by
accelerating information and communications technologies will form a
new cultural group of technology refuseniks who self-segregate from
'modern' society. Some will live mostly 'off the grid' simply to seek peace
and a cure for information overload, while others will commit acts of terror
or violence in protest against technology.
<table width="90%" border="0" cellpadding="3">
<tr align="center" bgcolor="#FFFF66">
<th scope="col"> </th>
<th scope="col">Agree</th>
<th scope="col">Disagree</th>
<th scope="col">Whatever</th>
</tr>
<tr align="center" bgcolor="#FFFF99">
<td>MW CS Survey </td>
<td>60% (18)</td>
<td>23% (7)</td>
<td>17% (5)</td>
</tr>
<tr align="center" bordercolor="#FFFFFF" bgcolor="#FFFFCC">
<td>Pew Survey</td>
<td>58% </td>
<td>35% </td>
<td>7%</td>
</tr>
<tr align="center" bordercolor="#FFFFFF" bgcolor="#FFFFDD"> <td>Delta: CS - Pew</td>
<td>+2</td>
<td>-12 </td>
<td>+10</td>
</tr>
</table>
